The returns market in the United States continues to grow at an accelerated pace, and in 2025 it has solidified itself as one of the most critical factors shaping inventory supply for the wholesale liquidation industry. New reports published this year by organizations such as the National Retail Federation (NRF), Happy Returns, and UPS offer a clear picture: returns keep rising, their economic impact is massive, and they represent a constant source of merchandise for wholesalers and resellers.
Below, we analyze the most relevant data from 2025, projections for the end of the year, and what all of this means for companies operating directly within the U.S. liquidation ecosystem.
Volume of Returns in the United States During 2025
According to the latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) in partnership with Happy Returns, returns in 2025 are projected to reach:
US $849.9 billion in returned merchandise.
This figure represents:
- 15.8% of total retail sales in the country.
- In other words, approximately 1 out of every 6 retail dollars ends up being returned.
This number includes returns from both physical stores and ecommerce, although the latter exerts a particularly strong influence on the total.
Ecommerce Returns: A Growing Driver of Returned Inventory
The complementary NRF and Happy Returns report, based on surveys conducted in 2025 with more than 2,000 U.S. consumers, shows that:
- Ecommerce will have a 19.3% return rate in 2025.
This percentage far exceeds the overall retail average, confirming that ecommerce is a key generator of returned inventory. Factors such as incorrect sizing, differences between online presentation and reality, and more flexible return policies have fueled this growth.
For the liquidation industry, this translates into a constant flow of returned merchandise entering the cycle of inspection, sorting, and eventual liquidation.
Online sales returns tend to be much cleaner, as the vast majority of products are returned unused and even unopened. For this reason, the boom in online shopping has also improved the overall quality of returns.
Approximately 1 out of every 6 retail dollars ends up being returned.
Are the Estimates Based on Actual 2025 Data or Older Projections?
This year brings an important distinction:
Unlike previous cycles where analysts projected return volumes using data from the prior year, the 2025 figures:
- Are based on data collected this same year
- Include surveys conducted during the summer of 2025
- Are projected exclusively for the current year
This gives the estimates greater accuracy and relevance—especially valuable for inventory planning and liquidation market analysis.
Why Are Returns Continuing to Rise?
The factors driving return volume in 2025 include:
- Greater ecommerce penetration and frictionless return policies
- Changes in consumer behavior, with more willingness to “try before buying”
- A higher volume of impulse purchases or multi-size/multi-item orders intended for partial returns
- Post-pandemic retail adjustments that normalized practices promoting easier returns
- Excess inventory generated by over-importation in some sectors during 2024–2025
- High levels of return fraud (≈ 9% of the total according to NRF)
Direct Impact on the Liquidation Industry
For those participating in the wholesale liquidation market, this level of returns constitutes a major portion of the available supply. Returned products go through classification processes that may result in:
- Wholesale lot sales (such as those offered by Go Liquidator)
- Repackaging and resale through secondary channels
- Liquidation auctions
- Large-volume export
- Destruction (when the item is not recoverable)
Depending on product condition (opened, used, unused, refurbishable, damaged, defective), items enter different liquidation categories, affecting both pricing and the type of buyer they attract.
Since most of these returns already exist within U.S. territory, they represent a highly valuable inventory source for wholesalers operating from the United States.
What This Means for Go Liquidator and Its Customers
For Go Liquidator, the 2025 returns landscape represents a strong and expanding opportunity:
- Increased availability of returned inventory
- Opportunities to expand product categories
- More competitive pricing in certain lots
- Greater openness for international buyers
- Strong demand for reliable liquidation sources
Returns aren’t just a retail metric—they are the engine that powers the liquidation ecosystem. And in 2025, that engine is running stronger than ever.
Sources: UPS | National Retail Federation (NRF) | Report: ‘2025 Retail Returns Landscape’ (NRF / Happy Returns) | Synctrack
Photos: Luliia Pilipeichenko on Unsplash | Alexander Grey on Unsplash
